Global Geohazard System

Environmental Risks, Forecasting

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Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

The forecast of members of the scientific community that massive casualties will be experienced in the next big disaster that will hit the Philippines is accurate.

One of the greatest concerns is that the target of the next big one is the Philippines national capital region: Metropolitan Manila.

With a nighttime population of more than 12 million, in daytime Metro Manila has a population volume of nearly 20 million or higher during peak seasons.

Metro Manila is also home to many international agency headquarters such as the Asian Development Bank and all the home offices of foreign embassies are located in the capital region.

Too many factors can account for the exactitude and correctness of the prediction of massive casualties – not the least amongst them, the lack of state-of-the-art data and information ferreting equipment. Scientific expertise and knowhow in the use of new technology for tidal wave, weather, seismic event, volcanic eruption forecasting is not necessarily lacking in the Philippines.

However, it must be conceded that the Philippines does not have enough or adequate experience in handling satellite launch, management and earth observation operations.

To compound the problem ten-folds it is learned through the media, that intervention by interest groups in purveying vital data to the public about earthquake faults, the shameless impunity with which big companies are shunting regulations against building big structures on top of sites highly vulnerable to earthquake faults, also compound the danger of the Philippines suffering a large multitude of people getting killed during a big disaster incident involving the shaking of the Marikina West Valley Fault System.  More > >

Forecasting impending disaster

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy). More > >

Greetngs Everyone!!!

Invitation Letter to World GeoHazards experts

December 9, 2013

Dear Sir / Madame,

Greetings!

This is to formally invite your attention to  our determination to hold the international conference on geohazard mapping and relevant environment issues. Our group decided to launch a campaign in 2009 for sustainable crisis hazards mapping and relevant environmental concerns after returning from Mindanao, Philippines following the end of the effort in ending the highly expensive hotel billeting by Juma’a Abu Sayyap of selected staff members of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) from Switzerland (Andreas Notter), Italy (Eugenio Vagni) and Philippines (Mary Jane Lacaba).  More   >  >

Demographics and Disaster

10,000 are feared to be dead.-

Yahoo News

When the Philippine Coast Guard began recovery operations in Tacloban, together with all the other entities participating in search, rescue and recovery, they were appalled at the huge number of dead bodies floating in the sea off Tacloban's coasts and on the streets.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC) began with a body count of the deceased at below ten. By the morning of November 11, 2013, NDRRMC declared that the number of casualties was 255.

Around the evening Malacanang told media in a press conference that the figure has gone up to 1,700. By reckoning, the final figure cannot be less than 10,000. Spokesman Mr. Edwin Lacierda refuted the claim of 10,000 casualties...

Yahoo and other quarter's estimate that there are 10,000 that are feared to be dead is correct. More > >

Photo credit: Agence France Press; Reuters; Manila Bulletin

Winning the heart of Congress Senate and Malacanang

The Draft Senate Bill for creating the Visayas Rehabilitation Commission and allocating funds thereto and for other purposes (Click the image at right to see the dirty draft of the bill)

It is recalled being told to the people in the Senate of the Philippines, that our group even if we do not mean ill of others, often tell things in the harsh version of the truth without any cosmetics nor embellishments. Sometimes our group even tells things in words that cannot even be swallowed, specially when the recipient has something hidden under the sleeves.

It is always best to qualify and mitigate vitriol however with kindness and thoughtfulness. This is one of those times. We wish to commend three different parties in this message:

1.  The Congress

Speaker of the House of Representatives Feliciano Belmonte, who made it known to all and sundry that he was speaking with Members of the Congress who were reachable during the present recess period, and reaching an agreement with them that they are going to give up their PDAF money in favor of the victims of calamities in Tacloban, Samar, etc. It will appear in the latter part of this message that that will no longer happen, seeing as it is that PDAF has already been TROed by the Supreme Court. 

2.  The Senate

During the Bohol-Cebu Earthquake, the Senate, that is mired in the middle of the controversy of the PDAF, DAP (enormous amounts figuring in bribery for the impeachment of now deposed Chief Justice Renato C. Corona) as a whole body, passed a Senate Resolution to give Six Million Philippine Pesos (PHP6-M). The money is not even comparable to booger (kulangot) in the face of the multi-billions freely being given away by government to dressed for funeral public officials and their contractor co-conspirators with similarly well dressed up documents. The Senate was in a quandary over the recent tragedy that hit Visayas again; it appears that giving PHP6-M will be very embarrassing. They cooked up an idea that the private sector will shell out big donations that will then be deducted from the taxes that businessmen pay to the government. Spokesman E Lacierda says that they have to craft a law to that effect.

3.  Malacanang

The Office of the President is the last stop in the making of a law that will grant rehabilitation funds for disaster affected areas. Mr. Aquino the 3rd has to sign the law to put it into effect.

In the past, Mr. Aquino the 3rd's late mother, Pres. Cory Aquino, agreed and signed into law the allocation of independent or autonomous budgets specifically and strictly dedicated to the rehabilitation of Baguio after the Killer Earthquake of 16 July 1990 and the rehabilitation of Central Luzon after the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 15 June 1991. Around PHP2 Billion went to Baguio and PHP7 Billion for Central Luzon (the original integrated incomprehensible and embarrassing damage assessment was only PHP800-Million) became PHP10-Billion.

We therefore write to Salute the Senate and Malacanang, and sooner than later, before we forget, Congress for the statement to media of Senator Francis Escudero, Chair, Senate Finance Committee that from out of the budgets of the various departments, funds for the rehabilitation of Visayas will be taken out and re-allocated for the Visayas Rehabilitation Effort. The total rehabilitation fund will be Ten Billion Philippine Pesos (PHP10-Billion). Shrewd little devil, that one. And in 2014 or before, other laws may be made by the Legislative to effectively allocate added funds for the Visayas Rehabilitation Effort. (We tweeted shrewd little devil earlier about the Visayas Rehabilitation.)

Capping the triumphant announcement of our dearly beloved politicians, Malacanang made a public statement a few minutes ago that it interposes no objections to the direction of the Legislative and the way the 2014 national budget will be diminished by PHP10-Billion.

Salute to all of you, Senate and Malacanang and in advance Congress for allowing the people to win you over to the side of the helpless and suffering surviving victims of the disaster and their communities that have been ravaged by the powerful blows of the earthquake (it is recently doing several encores) and Typhoon Yolanda.

We will not relent in our campaign for the allocation of a larger fund for the recovery and reconstruction of affected areas.

But lest we forget, while we interpose our non-objection to the recent announcements of Senate and Malacanang (and in the near future, Congress) may we reiterate the headache we are giving you to modernize Phivolcs, Pagasa, Namria, the entire DOST and other related agencies that have something to do with disaster preparedness. Most of all, kindly do not forget to allocate merienda and softdrinks for the NDRRMC when they hold a series of seminars about re-engineering their disaster risk reduction strategy and Bible Reading on how not to keep people in super suspense whether their relatives are alive or dead.

Thank you very much again dear officials for small favors. We are not through with you, yet.

Draft Legislation - Rehabilitation of Yolanda damaged area

New wording of draft legislation for the rehabilitation of areas affected by the recent killer earthquake and the Typhoon Yolanda - without excluding the forthcoming damage that will be wrought by the new tropical storm, Typhoon Zorayda. Click here to download draft bill. 

Bohol-Cebu earthquake

Typhoon Yolanda in Tacloban, Leyte

Photo credit: Daniel Politi - slate.com

Photo credit: Yahoo PH

Suggested changes to Draft Senate Bill for Bohol-Cebu-Negros Rehab

Strongly suggest to The Honorable, The Senate of the Philippines that the bill for the creation of the Bohol-Cebu-Negros rehabilitation commission be renamed into the Visayas Rehabilitation Commission and in the future, the creation of a super body as pushed for by various quarters, that will be devoted to the management of pre-disaster, ongoing disaster response and post-disaster management activity.

There is no time to waste. Another calamity is forthcoming and will hit the country very soon.

We sincerely implore the two houses of the Congress of the Philippines to call for an emergency joint session for this purpose, even known the desire of our lawmakers to rest and re-create at this time.

The entire nation will be grateful for their patriotism, compassion, love for their suffering countrymen and women.

A Day Not Worth Celebrating, Change is Dying

It is hard to expect change from the current brouhaha at the Senate. It is difficult to focus on the preparations for the coming nightmare called Yolanda, with a President pretending not to be concerned but pulling strings from all sides to make the sideshow from the haunted CCP-PICC complex a successful zarzuela. A site called omnibusblog called the Senate Hearing that compelled Ms. Janet Lim-Napoles to the witness stand as a mockery of Senate Investigation, instead of devotion to being in aid of Legislation, the writer says it was done in aid of demolition. The site talks about cemetery plots, possible burial grounds for famous legislators and key bureaucrat officials, among other unpleasant figures in society. An excerpt of the article is shown below: 

From the dead to the dead, till death doth us part 

The zarzuela continues. This supposedly "good-intentioned" Senate Hearing, in aid of Demolition, succeeds as a major public relations campaign of world wide magnitude. As a play, the entire production does not rate even a low D grade. It was too transparent to be stage managed, with Madam Janet Lim Napoles talking to her friend-senators as if they were long-lost friends. She does not even use the respectful address of Your Honor and never leads her statements with Mr. Chairman of the Committee.
Madam Napoles was in the Senate at her best element. She even complained that she must be given her free lunch time.

Led by Senators TG Guingona, a known substance abuser and Peter Alan Cayetano, a man insanely driven by the ambition to rise above the person who fed his young models-loving father from the palm of his hand (called Tanda by Sen. Miriam Santiago, ex Judge and former Cory appointee as well as collector of half-million bribe from the lion's share of undocumented 4 million chinese in the Philippines during the 1986 installed revolutionary regime), the drama goes on attempting to be the best Pitong Komikera-Komikerong Itlog show in this part of the globe.

The lady from Lima was also present, hubnubbing with Sen. Santiago during recess with Sens. Cayetano and Trillanes trading ideas from time to time during the interregnum when the Great Madam money giver to presidents, politicians and bureaucrats and money grubber, in the league of Mr. Zaldy Co and Mr. Edwin Gardiola said Time Out, I Have To Eat Lunch. Missing the action was the real lawyer of Madam, Atty. Fred Villamor, for whom the lady of Lima lawyered for Madam Napoles, being an obedient , willing partner with or without her underwear.

On occasion, at least once or twice, it was mentioned that the famous NGO (non-government organization) and PO (people's organization) community organizer, Madam Napoles, even used the dead to populate her NGOs and POs. From her probably great gratitude to the dead, she possibly bought beautiful Heritage Park lots for her benefactors - Senators, Presidents, Congresspersons, the President's top men and women, local officials and national budget bigwigs.

A multi-million several days' partying and catering marks the visit of Ms. Janet Lim Napoles to the Heritage Park in Global City aka The Fort. The Inquirer reports that the Heritage Park mausoleum dedicated to Ms. Napoles' mother even became a tourist spot recently after this same newspaper broke the news on the Napoles fund scam. Read more >>

Restoration and Rehabilitation for Bohol, Cebu and Negros Oriental

SIXTEENTH CONGRESS OF THE REPUBLIC       )

OF THE PHILIPPINES                                             )

_________ Regular Session                                        )

SENATE

S.B. No. __________

Introduced by Senator Ferdinand R Marcos Jr

EXPLANATORY NOTE

The provinces of Bohol, Cebu and in recent past, Negros Oriental, Philippines suffered massive, extremely dangerous earthquakes. Such disasters left deep, indelible imprints on the national psyche and upon people all over the world thus the incidents demand our undivided attention.

Pursuant to Section 4, Article II of 1987 Philippine Constitution providing, “The prime duty of the Government is to serve and protect the people”, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 (RA 10121) was enacted into law. With this, Philippine DRRM Plan 2011-2028 was adopted to ensure that the government shall establish and strengthen capacities of communities to anticipate, cope and recover from the negative impact of emergency occurrences and disasters. The DILG as the Vice Chair for Preparedness of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) issued a Memorandum Circular No. 2012-79 to implement the Seal of Disaster Preparedness. The aimed at recognizing and incentivizing local governance performance in institutionalizing disaster preparedness, and to assess performance gaps, link gaps to policy or program intervention and monitor improvements on disaster preparedness. In the recent Bohol-Cebu calamity, the resulting effects from the earthquake, are as follows:

1.            Fatalities: more than 218 persons dead

2.            Missing: more than 8 persons unaccounted for as this time

3.            In Bohol lone, more than 120,000 persons displaced and evacuated.

4.            Civilians Injured in Bohol province alone : 760

5.            More than seventy nine (79) designated evacuation centers in Bohol-Cebu were filled to the brim with displaced persons.

6.            Loss and damage to property estimated at more or less in the range of 10 billion pesos with a cost of reconstruction reaching up to 20 billion pesos

Thus said, the recent calamity that hit Bohol and Cebu City resulted in enormous loss to the people in terms of structures. Ground shift, water retreat from the affected areas’ sea lines, these are merely some of the effects of the disaster in Bohol, Cebu and continue to be suffered by the population in Negros Oriental that in recent past also suffered a massive earthquake. Infrastructure damage is estimated at not less than fifteen billion Philippine Pesos (PHP15-B) in all three areas of Bohol, Cebu and Negros. These assessments form part of the early findings only on the overall worth of the destruction brought about by the calamity.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) office in Bohol-Cebu, according to its Officer-in-Charge, Allan Rommel R. Labayog, suffered intense shaking in the PHIVOLCS seismic vault that subsequently damaged the earthquake sensor equipment of Phivolcs in the area. This makes the Phivolcs now handicapped to monitor earthquakes in said area in the immediate future and needs to be addressed as soon as possible.

In paragraph 2, Section 23, Article VI of the Philippine Constitution, it is stated that “in times of war or other national emergency, the Congress may, by law, authorize the President, for a limited period and subject to such restrictions as it may prescribe, to exercise powers necessary and proper to carry out a declared national policy. Unless sooner withdrawn by resolution of the Congress, such powers shall cease upon the next adjournment thereof.” In paragraph 2, Section 26 Article VI it states, that “No bill passed by either House shall become a law unless it has passed three readings on separate days, and printed copies thereof in its final form have been distributed to its Members three days before its passage, except when the President certifies to the necessity of its immediate enactment to meet a public calamity or emergency. Upon the last reading of a bill, no amendment thereto shall be allowed, and the vote thereon shall be taken immediately thereafter, and the yeas and nays entered in the Journal.

And in Section 17, Article XII of the Philippine Constitution, it states that. “In times of national emergency, when the public interest so requires, the State may, during the emergency and under reasonable terms prescribed by it, temporarily take over or direct the operation of any privately-owned public utility or business affected with public interest.”

This proposed bill seeks to put in place a Bohol-Cebu-Negros Rehabilitation Commission (BCNRC) that will be responsible for developing, formulating and implementing a Bohol-Cebu-Negros Rehabilitation and Development Plan at the quickest and soonest possible time. In Negros Oriental, a group, Centre Humanes et Societas, Inc. through its network of organizations in the province, has enjoined the forming of a Standing Conference on Negros Oriental Rehabilitation and Development. This Standing Conference has formulated the comprehensive plan for rehabilitating Negros Oriental in the post-earthquake period and the results of their work will be used in the course of the work of the Commission that is the subject of this Act. This measure emanates from a series of consultations with various stakeholders.  Confident of their noble intentions and breadth of knowledge in the matter involved, the immediate enactment of this proposed measure into law is most fervently enjoined.

FERDINAND R MARCOS JR

The Author: Senator Bongbong Marcos

Zamboanga in happier days

Missing you always

Zamboanga